Climate change biology

Part I. Preliminaries. 1. Putting it in perspective : the palaeorecord and climate reconstructions. Methods of Palaeoclimatic reconstruction Methods of chronology determination Sources of Palaeoclimatic information Causes of climatic variability The history of the earth's climate Conclusions 2. Projecting future climates. What are scenarios? From emissions to climate projections: general circulation models Regional models and the problem of downscaling Hindcasts and model validation Model results and projections Conclusions 3. Methods for studying the impacts of climatic change. Observational methods Experimental methods Theoretical and statistical methods Conclusions Part II. Impacts from physiology to evolution. 4. Physiological responses. Photosynthesis review Photosynthetic responses to climate change Nutrient- and water-use efficiencies Growth responses Phenological responses Changes in plant quality and defences Conclusions 4. Population responses in time and space. What is a population and how do we study its response? Functional trait and within-species responses to climatic change Complex population dynamics in time: lags, cycles and regime shifts Range shifts and spatial distributions Clonal growth responses to climatic change Conclusions 6. Community composition and dynamics. Changes in the distribution and abundance of coexisting populations The challenges of studying climate change effects on community Evidence for global warming effects on community composition and diversity Evidence for effects of altered precipitation on community composition Evidence for effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on community compositions Climate change, disturbance and succession Multitrophic responses to climatic change Conclusions 7. Ecosystem responses. Ecosystems and carbon Factors that regulate carbon sequestration Impacts on net primary productivity Impacts on heterotrophic respiration Impacts on net ecosystem productivity Impacts on nutrient cycling Conclusions 8. Evolutionary responses to climatic change. Phenotypic plasticity and ecological fitting Genetic variation Adaptive rescue Rapid evolution Experimental evolution Correlated genetic traits Conclusions

Part III. Applications.

9. Responses by soil organisms.

Responses of the detrital system

Responses of the biotrophic system

Soil food web responses

Plant-soil feedbacks

Conclusions

10. The future of forest productivity.

Impacts on net primary production

Carbon allocation patterns

Changes in disturbance regimes

Conclusions

11. The future of agricultural production.

Impacts on crop systems

Potential for adaptation

Future agricultural production

The future of crop protection

Conclusions

12. Impacts on biodiversity.

Consequences of biodiversity loss

Measures of biodiversity

Biodiversity patterns at local, regional and global spatial scales

Biodiversity decline and climatic change

Diversity-productivity, diversity-stability and diversity-disturbance relationships

Invasive species and climate change

Protected areas and other management practices in a changing climate

Conclusions

Part V. Final considerations.

13. Multiple stressors.

Global ecological changes and climatic change

Interactive effects and positive feedbacks

Stress versus disturbance

Climate change and disturbance events

CO₂ elevation, temperature and precipitation

Climate change and nitrogen deposition

Climate change and ozone

Climate change, land use and habitat loss

Conclusions

14.The limits of science.

Introduction

Factors limiting our ability to make predictions

Persistent uncertainty and the limits of science

Conclusions.