Let the evidence speak: using Bayesian thinking in law, medicine, ecology and other areas

Introduction

Part I. Likelihood ; Whose car? ; Bayes' rule ; Track record ; Game show ; Margin of error ; Five thoughts about likelihoods

Part. II. Base rate ; Diagnosis ; Information ; Being careful about base rates ; Independence ; Review

Part III. Application ; Who wrote that? ; Wood, trees and wildlife ; Radiocarbon dating ; Bayes and the law ; The selection task ; Conclusion

A formula for Bayes' rule.